China & the US
Country Risk Reviews: See my latest PowerPoint slides on the world's two largest economies...
Image source
See my Country Risk Reviews of China and the US here, on my Country Success web site.
When you get to the site, scroll down past the Ten Point Plan documents (or better yet, read Ten Point Plan: Strategic Planning for the US from 2020!) Scroll past the Ten Point Plan report, Notes & Sources, and the earlier, longer drafts until you get to the PowerPoints (PDF-ed) on the US and China.
These two reviews are based on work we are doing at NYU in the Master's course I teach called, Country Risk Analysis and Management.
In this class we do a simulation of a corporate Country Risk Committee, where students recommend a country risk category and a sovereign credit rating for their countries. The Committee discusses their recommendations and we vote, the results of which drive the "company's" exposures around the world.
2022 promises to be an eventful year for China.
The 20th Party Congress will convene this Fall and is expected to reappoint Xi Jinping as president, as well as to feature other key party and government leaders (and potential successors) who will sit on the Politburo Standing Committee.
Also, this year should shed light on whether:
the Joint Statement issued by the Kremlin following the Olympic summit between Messrs. Xi and Putin will translate into an open alliance opposing US global leadership; and,
the slowdown in China’s economic growth is merely a pause in this country’s rise to becoming the world's leading technological and economic power.
It is also timely to review the United States:
The Biden budget plan released last month may mean deficit-neutrality for Build Back Better, with a focus on climate provisions and taxes on wealth.
In spite of America's formidable strengths from an investment standpoint, warning lights for the long term are flashing -- i.e. deteriorating trends in education and social outcomes, governance and debt dynamics.
Have a look at these presentations on the Country Success site.